Examining the Effects of a Universal Cash Transfer on Fertility

By: Sarah K. Cowan and Kiara Wyndham Douds*

Published in Social Forces 101 (2), 1003-1030

Childbearing is at once deeply personal and shaped by social structure. It is also a site of profound inequality in the United States. Income inequality is an upstream cause of childbearing inequality, yet the evidence of the effect of income on reproduction is inconclusive. Previously, scholars primarily examined the introduction of means-tested relief to families with children. This limits analysis to families in poverty and provides insight only into the presence or absence of a policy. We analyze the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend, which has provided all Alaskan residents with a substantial annual cash payment since 1982. The amount of the payment varies annually and is exogenous to individual Alaskans’ behavior and the state’s economy. We examine the effect of the cash transfers on fertility and abortion among a large and diverse population that has received varying amounts of money over time. We find the payments increase short-term fertility rates 1 and 2 years after disbursement, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Standardized to the 2010 household size distribution, two average payments relative to two minimum payments would result in a predicted fertility rate increase from 80.03 to 86.53 per 1,000 women age 15–44. The effect is largest for first births. The payments have no effect on the abortion rate. These results indicate the additional income removes economic constraints to reproductive health and autonomy and reduces reproductive inequality.

This research was covered in New York Times and KCBS.

Discordant benevolence: How and why people help others in the face of conflicting values

By: Sarah K. Cowan, Tricia C. Bruce, Brea L. Perry, Bridget Ritz*, Stuart Perrett* & Elizabeth M. Anderson*

Published in: Science Advances 8 (7), 2022

What happens when a request for help from friends or family members invokes conflicting values? In answering this question, we integrate and extend two literatures: support provision within social networks and moral decision-making. We examine the willingness of Americans who deem abortion immoral to help a close friend or family member seeking one. Using data from the General Social Survey and 74 in-depth interviews from the National Abortion Attitudes Study, we find that a substantial minority of Americans morally opposed to abortion would enact what we call discordant benevolence: providing help when doing so conflicts with personal values. People negotiate discordant benevolence by discriminating among types of help and by exercising commiseration, exemption, or discretion. This endeavor reveals both how personal values affect social support processes and how the nature of interaction shapes outcomes of moral decision-making.

Do Pregnancy Intentions Matter? Revisiting Relationships With Pregnancy, Birth, and Maternal Outcomes

By: Nicholas Mark, & Sarah K. Cowan

Published in: Demography (2022) 59 (1): 37–49.

Preventing unplanned or unintended pregnancies continues to be a cornerstone of American reproductive health policy and infrastructure, but the evidence that these pregnancies cause adverse maternal and child outcomes is limited. We test these relationships on recent large-scale data using inverse propensity weights estimated from generalized boosted models. Consistent with prior research, we find that pregnancy timing is related to maternal experience during pregnancy, but not to infant outcomes at birth. In an addition to the literature, we find evidence that pregnancy timing is relevant for a number of maternal outcomes, such as the onset of depression and intimate partner violence, changes in smoking behavior, and receipt of medical care. These findings suggest that policy intended to improve infant welfare by preventing unintended pregnancies has little empirical support, but that policy focused on increasing reproductive autonomy and maternal well-being has the potential to improve outcomes.